In the provided scenario, a hypothetical World War 3 is outlined, spanning various regions and describing potential outcomes. Here's a concise summary of the key points from the scenario:
- Europe: The scenario suggests that the United States abandons Ukraine and withdraws from NATO, leading to Russia's victory in the region. This allows Russia to grow stronger and eventually attack Baltic states by 2026. Western Europe experiences political instability and unrest, resulting in delayed responses.
- Middle East: The U.S. abandoning Ukraine triggers unrest in the Middle East, with countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran racing to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel becomes embroiled in conflicts with Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Pakistan. India supports Israel, leading to a war with Pakistan, and Pakistan collapses into chaos.
- Asia: China takes advantage of the situation and attempts to annex Taiwan, potentially drawing the U.S. into the conflict. China successfully damages U.S. carrier strike groups with nuclear strikes, and there is a limited exchange of nuclear weapons between China, the U.S., the UK, and France. Japan also faces a nuclear threat from North Korea due to their involvement in the Second Korean War.
- Africa: The scenario predicts global war and its impact on the entire African continent. Mass starvation, civil wars, insurgency, and terrorism spread as nations collapse.
- South America & the Caribbean: Venezuela's aggression towards Guyana is mentioned, and a lack of globalism leads to state collapses, mass migration, and the rise of cartels.
- North America: The U.S. builds a border wall to stop South American migration, and there's a shift towards the political right. Industries surge to produce weapons, potentially leading to a U.S. civil war.
- Notable Mentions: Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are relatively safe. The EU, Japan, and the UK remain mostly intact but weakened. The rest of the world experiences civil wars, starvation, collapse, terrorism, and the threat of rogue nuclear weapons.
- Post-War Period: The scenario envisions a post-war period where remaining powers intervene to prevent further nuclear proliferation. The possibility of a global government is suggested, particularly if the U.S. annexes regions as a condition for reconstruction.
- Population Impact: The scenario estimates that 56% of the world's population, approximately 4.5 billion people, would be lost due to World War 3, subsequent civil wars, insurgency, starvation, and disease.